2005/6 Premiership
It's that time of year again. Premiership football is almost back, and as seems somewhat traditional, I thought I should at least put a small amount of effort into doing a season preview. Unfortunately it doesn't make happy reading.
For the past two seasons, I have argued that the Premiership as a competition is in serious danger of losing the interest of the casual fan. With the average ticket price at Premiership grounds well over £25, you'd have to think that fans are forking out for some of the best entertainment around. The problem is that outside of the top clubs, most of the league has almost no chance of winning anything of note.
Only the delusional would claim that any team other than Chelsea, Arsenal or Manchester United will win the Premiership this season (indeed, some would claim a choice other than Chelsea is lunacy) and more than likely there will be a large gap between these three and the rest. The battle of the mid-table has become the focus for most of the leagues fans, as established clubs like Liverpool, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Everton and Tottenham look to gain the chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
Last season saw Chelsea win the league by well over ten points, with fourth placed Everton mathematically closer to relegation than to the championship. The top four positions were cemented by the final day, and the only glimmers of excitement came from the UEFA Cup decider between Manchester City and Middlesbrough, and the (frankly remarkable) relegation battle which saw the worst team I've ever seen, Southampton, finally return to the level they deserve to be at.
The problem with all of this is that apart from a few clubs such as Wigan, West Brom and Sunderland - for whom survival would mean a brilliant season - there is very little to aspire to. Without motivation, the packed stadia we're used to seeing are soon going to disappear. For years at Villa Park, we have seen attendances a full 15,000 below the 45,000 capacity at smaller games, because a sizeable number of the hardcore fans feel that the club has stagnated under the chairmanship of Doug Ellis. They argue that buying a season ticket would be idiocy when they feel that the club cannot progress under his leadership. It worries me that once the penny drops that once fans of great clubs like Everton, Manchester City and Newcastle realise that they have no chance of winning the title again in the next 20 years or more, faith will be lost, ticket sales will go down, and the gap between the haves and the have nots will grow even larger.
It seems inevitable to me that unless every Premiership club is bought by a billionaire and run as a plaything, this situation is going to remain largely unchanged for the next generation. And it saddens me.
I'm trying to get excited about the new season, I really am, but it's just not gripping me like it used to. It's almost certain that Villa will finish in a mediocre mid-table position, without too much threat of qualifying for Europe, nor too much fear of relegation.
Chelsea will win the title again, Arsenal a closer second, Manyoo third but a shadow of their former selves. An improved Spurs will be serious challengers for fourth spot, and Everton will face a season of bottom half travails after last season's successful league position. Sunderland will go straight back down, with two of Wigan, Fulham, West Ham and Portsmouth joining them. Souness will last the season, but I predict the Glazers will force Ferguson out.
For what it's worth, here's what I predicted for last season on 12 July 2004:
Chelsea will not figure in the top two this season, the battle for the top will be between Arsenal and Manyoo, with Liverpool threatening to interfere but failing come about April. Those four teams will complete the top four, however.
Almost entirely wrong.
This season will see the end for Robson at Newcastle, as he fails to take them to the UEFA Cup spot they consider a minimum. The teams to battle for that spot will be Aston Villa, Middlesbrough and Tottenham, the latter two will be much improved over last season and will pull a few surprises through the season.
Not bad, though I didn't think Robson would go as early as he did.
Relegation will be between West Brom, Norwich, Palace and Manchester City, who will see Keegan leave at some point in the next year.
A little pessimistic for Citeh, but as Flavell and Andrew will attest, I did say that Southampton would go down before the game on the first day of last season based on their pre-season purchases.
Comments
I think your predictions seem generally sensible and believable but I was just wondering what makes you so sure about sunderland going down and not the other promoted clubs. I know nothing about any of the clubs really but would have thought that sunderlands relatively large following would help them. Or doesn't that really help?
Posted by: Dave | 12 August 2005 at 16:51
For me, Sunderland have augmented their Championship team with too many Championship quality players to give them the quality they need this season. They went down a couple of years back as statistically the worst team in Premiership history, and McCarthy has done a great job of transforming that shipwreck of a team into one capable of getting back up to the top tier.
Realistically though, to stand a real chance of staying up, any team is going to have to win a minimum of six games, but to be really sure of safety, ten games plus a similar number of draws is a surefire safety target. I can't see Sunderland even managing six wins, let alone ten. The only teams I'd say they would have a good chance of beating are their fellow promoted clubs and West Brom, and other than that I'm clutching at straws. I feel similarly about Wigan, but feel their squad is more likely to adapt to the higher level more quickly to give them a slightly better chance of adapting.
Posted by: Mike | 12 August 2005 at 19:50